4th Annual NCEM-ECU Hurricane Workshop (2013)
http://hdl.handle.net/10342/1831
2024-03-19T10:05:26Z2013 Hurricane Season Forecast
http://hdl.handle.net/10342/1851
2013 Hurricane Season Forecast
Szatkowski, Gary
Mr. Szatkowski described the 2012 hurricane season. In 2012 there were 19 named storms, 10
reached hurricane strength and 2 were major hurricanes. This exceeded the average number.
This year is likely to exceed last year because the ACE, Accumulated Cyclone Energy is estimated to be higher than last year. The forecast has not been released from the Hurricane Center yet,
but it can be expect to be an above average active season. Mr. Szatkowski cautioned that the
U. S. is experiencing the longest period without a major hurricane striking land based on long term
averages. Chances are that we can expect a major hurricane before long.
2013-05-22T00:00:00ZHurricane Sandy (Panel)
http://hdl.handle.net/10342/1850
Hurricane Sandy (Panel)
Johnson, Darlene; Szatkowski, Gary; Smith, Craig
Mr. Szatkowski described the experience of Hurricane Sandy
from the point of view of forecast meteorologists working in New
Jersey area hit by the storm. His office in Mount Holly began issuing warnings forty hours before the storm and knew that
coastal flooding was the biggest threat. They anticipated record
breaking water heights and made a personal plea to people to
be prepared by showing photographs of storm damage from the hurricane in 1902 that devastated
the area. Sandy hit at high tide with a storm tide of 12-15 feet. Mr. Szatkowski said that the governors of New Jersey and Delaware issued the evacuation orders when they needed to and did a
great job in the run up to the storm. The New Jersey governor ordered a mandatory evacuation,
but the New York mayor did not. In extreme events, past experience fails to inform good decisions. For example, the New Jersey railway made the mistake of putting trains in an area that did
not flood in past hurricanes, but this time lost 400 million dollars in equipment. Some people did not
evacuate because they thought Hurricane Irene the
year before was less intense than anticipated. In a
study, researchers found that 76% of people said that
they “experienced” a hurricane, but only 37% reported
suffering damage from Hurricane Irene. Mr. Szatkowski observed if you did not experience damage or other problems, you did not really experience the hurricane. Climate change is also expected to make future
severe weather events worse. The trend in sea level
rise is acceleration, which will raise storm tide levels. It
Is very difficult to confront this problem because it is
long term and outside personal experience. Looking
ahead– even though forecasting has gotten better and
is expected to improve, it is difficult to get people to
understand the impact of a hurricane...
2013-05-22T00:00:00ZNCEM Workshop Keynote Speaker
http://hdl.handle.net/10342/1849
NCEM Workshop Keynote Speaker
Sturgis, Linda
Keynote speaker Linda Sturgis described the impact that Hurricane Sandy had on the coast of New
York and Northern New Jersey, an area in which she was responsible for safety, transportation and
navigation. The effects are still being felt. The statue of Liberty is not open yet, not because the
monument was damaged, but due to damage to the docking facilities on the Island. Ellis Island was
heavily damaged including many archives stored there. The weather buoys measured water height
at 9 feet and 10 feet and then suddenly off the scale. Some people said there was 42 foot wave and
they are probably right, but it was not measured. What affected people most, Sturgis said, was shipping, especially petro-chemical products because the anchorages in New York serve a large region
and have the second largest refinery in the country, operating since 1905. The entire system was
disrupted, including areas currently being dredged to accommodate larger ships. Widespread power
outages effected millions of people. In lower Manhattan, many of the neighborhoods in which first
responders live were hit hard. Many transportation routes were disabled for days.
2013-05-22T00:00:00ZModeling and Planning for Storm Surge (Panel)
http://hdl.handle.net/10342/1848
Modeling and Planning for Storm Surge (Panel)
Losego, Jessica; Dorman, John; Birch, Traci
Jessica Losego discussed the CERA (Coastal Emergency Risk Assessment)-Atlantic portal that is
part of the DHS Coastal Hazards Center of Excellence housed at UNC Chapel Hill. She showed
examples of the five-day forecasts that are generated based on ADCIRC coastal circulation and
storm surge models that produce deterministic wave and surge forecasts. The layers of the map
include storm track, water height, waves, wind speed and gauge stations located on a Google
map. The format allows a user to click on any part of the map and find a legend with corresponding colors that indicate inundation and how a particular area will be affected. While this website
has been available for several years, recent improvements have been made in response to feedback from emergency managers. They found that emergency managers need information 72
hours before landfall and they need a best guess for decision-making. The onset of tropical force
wind is important to emergency managers and although there are many ways to get the hurricane
track, it is hard to get information about river flooding and connect that to surge. New changes include color scale changes and more intuitive page design...
2013-05-22T00:00:00Z