Spatial Modeling of the Risk of Mosquito-borne Disease Transmission, Chesapeake, Virginia

Abstract

The increase in mosquito populations following extreme weather events poses a major threat to humans because of mosquitoes' ability to carry disease-causing pathogens. In areas with reservoirs of disease, mosquito abundance information can help to identify the areas at higher risk of disease transmission. Using a Geographic Information System (GIS), mosquito abundance is predicted across the city of Chesapeake, Virginia. The mosquito abundance model uses mosquito trap counts, habitat suitability, and environmental variables to predict the abundance of the species Culiseta melanura, as well as the combined abundance of Aedes vexans and Psorophora columbiae, for the year 2003. The mosquito abundance values are compared to vulnerable population indices to determine the spatial distribution of risk of disease transmission. The goal of this project is to create a reproducible model that could be embedded in a decision support system to aid in detecting areas at high risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission.