Humanitarian aid and its effects on civil conflicts with multiple rebel factions

Abstract

Humanitarian aid, protected under the Geneva Convention, is designed to protect four basic measures of human rights, including the right to life, food, basic healthcare, and physical well-being. To meet a basic standard of human rights, humanitarian aid tends to be guided through the principles of, neutrality to parties in conflict, equal proportionality of assistance to victims, and independence from a political agenda. While the principles of aid are seemingly straightforward, the difficulties of conflict create outcomes that are only beginning to be fully understood. Research suggests that the introduction of aid lengthens conflict duration through substitution, stealing, disproportional deliverance, and safe zones. In order to potentially improve aid outcomes, the proposed study examines the factors that create the environment in which aid lengthens and intensifies conflict by focusing on the number of rebel actors involved in the dispute. It is proposed that the more rebel groups involved in a civil conflict the higher likelihood humanitarian aid could worsen the conflict as rebel groups compete for scarce resources. Using the Armed Conflict Database and humanitarian aid data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, hypotheses are tested using Cox proportional hazard models and ordinary least square regressions on all civil conflicts occurring between 1960-2018.This original research should add the literature about aid as well as civil conflicts, while informing policymakers about the effects of aid in certain conflict conditions.