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    A simple model to quantitatively account for periodic outbreaks of the measles in the Dutch Bible Belt

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    Author
    Bier, Martin; Brak, Bastiann
    Abstract
    In the Netherlands there has been nationwide vaccination against the measles since 1976. However, in small clustered communities of orthodox Protestants there is widespread refusal of the vaccine. After 1976, three large outbreaks with about 3000 reported cases of the measles have occurred among these orthodox Protestants. The outbreaks appear to occur about every twelve years. We show how a simple Kermack-McKendrick-like model can quantitatively account for the periodic outbreaks. Approximate analytic formulae to connect the period, size, and outbreak duration are derived. With an enhanced model we take the latency period in account. We also expand the model to follow how different age groups are affected. Like other researchers using other methods, we conclude that large scale underreporting of the disease must occur.
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10342/8043
    Date
    2015
    Citation:
    APA:
    Bier, Martin, & Brak, Bastiann. (January 2015). A simple model to quantitatively account for periodic outbreaks of the measles in the Dutch Bible Belt. The European Physical Journal B, (88:4), p.. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10342/8043

    Display/Hide MLA, Chicago and APA citation formats.

    MLA:
    Bier, Martin, and Brak, Bastiann. "A simple model to quantitatively account for periodic outbreaks of the measles in the Dutch Bible Belt". The European Physical Journal B. 88:4. (.), January 2015. February 24, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10342/8043.
    Chicago:
    Bier, Martin and Brak, Bastiann, "A simple model to quantitatively account for periodic outbreaks of the measles in the Dutch Bible Belt," The European Physical Journal B 88, no. 4 (January 2015), http://hdl.handle.net/10342/8043 (accessed February 24, 2021).
    AMA:
    Bier, Martin, Brak, Bastiann. A simple model to quantitatively account for periodic outbreaks of the measles in the Dutch Bible Belt. The European Physical Journal B. January 2015; 88(4) . http://hdl.handle.net/10342/8043. Accessed February 24, 2021.
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