Affective Polarization, State Competitiveness, and Voter Turnout in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

Abstract

Voter turnout remains a central indicator of democratic participation, yet the factors that motivate individuals to vote continue to evolve in modern elections. This study reexamines turnout through the lens of rational choice theory, challenging the traditional assumption that voting constitutes a low-cost, low-benefit political act. As affective polarization intensifies and electoral competition increases, the emotional and strategic benefits associated with voting may shift the cost–benefit calculation in meaningful ways. Using measures of affective polarization and state-level competitiveness, this analysis evaluates how these forces independently and jointly shape the likelihood of voting. I argue that affective polarization heightens emotional investment in electoral outcomes, while competitive environments increase the perceived value of individual votes. When these factors align, they substantially elevate the incentives to participate; when both are low, turnout becomes less likely. By identifying the interactive relationship between polarization and competitiveness, this study offers insight into contemporary voter behavior and highlights geographic disparities in the incentives citizens face when deciding whether to vote.