Betting on the NCAA Tournament

Abstract

This paper examines the profitability of betting on the first round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, due to the fact that upsets are more common in the first round. Betting on specific combinations of tournament seeds were examined using historical odds from every tournament from 2010 to 2023, By simulating combinations of seed bets and calculating returns, the research aims to identify the most profitable strategies. The findings reveal that while betting on lower seeds like #11 and #15 can be profitable, the overall success varies significantly by year, with 2012 being an extreme outlier due to a high number of upsets.