Reflections on Sandy: Understanding What Happened & Where Do We Go From Here?

Abstract

Mr. Szatkowski described the experience of Hurricane Sandy

from the point of view of forecast meteorologists working in New

Jersey area hit by the storm. His office in Mount Holly began issuing

warnings forty hours before the storm and knew that

coastal flooding was the biggest threat. They anticipated record

breaking water heights and made a personal plea to people to

be prepared by showing photographs of storm damage from the hurricane in 1902 that devastated

the area. Sandy hit at high tide with a storm tide of 12-15 feet. Mr. Szatkowski said that the governors

of New Jersey and Delaware issued the evacuation orders when they needed to and did a

great job in the run up to the storm. The New Jersey governor ordered a mandatory evacuation,

but the New York mayor did not. In extreme events, past experience fails to inform good decisions.

For example, the New Jersey railway made the mistake of putting trains in an area that did

not flood in past hurricanes, but this time lost 400 million dollars in equipment. Some people did not

evacuate because they thought Hurricane Irene the

year before was less intense than anticipated. In a

study, researchers found that 76% of people said that

they “experienced” a hurricane, but only 37% reported

suffering damage from Hurricane Irene. Mr. Szatkowski

observed if you did not experience damage or other

problems, you did not really experience the hurricane.

Climate change is also expected to make future

severe weather events worse. The trend in sea level

rise is acceleration, which will raise storm tide levels. It

Is very difficult to confront this problem because it is

long term and outside personal experience. Looking

ahead– even though forecasting has gotten better and

is expected to improve, it is difficult to get people to

understand the impact of a hurricane.