PREDICTIONS, ASSIGNED GRADES, AND OUTCOMES : IMPLICATIONS FOR SCHOOL LEADERSHIP

Abstract

This study analyzed relationships between teachers' ability to predict proficiency levels on standardized end-of-grade tests for grades three through eight in reading and mathematics relative to students' actual proficiency levels. This study also analyzed relationships between teacher-assigned grades in reading and mathematics for grades three through eight relative to student's actual proficiency levels. The research was conducted using state assessment data reports for an eastern North Carolina school district, a midsize district with over 17,000 students and 900 teachers. Data were organized into tables for examining relationships of teacher predictions and teacher-assigned grades to student achievement qualitatively through descriptive analysis. The Fisher's exact test was applied as the statistic of analysis for examining teacher predictions of proficiency and non-proficiency with actual student achievement. The Fisher's exact test was also applied as the statistic of analysis for examining teacher-assigned grades with actual student achievement. Results of this study determined the pattern of predictions more closely aligned to actual scores on Proficiency Level III in both reading and mathematics. The Fisher's exact test showed a statistically significant relationship exists between teacher prediction and actual student proficiency level. Twenty percent of students failed the reading test and 9% failed the mathematics test, even though their teachers had predicted they would pass with a Level III or IV. In both reading and mathematics, teachers in grade span 3-5 show a closer prediction to the actual achievement level obtained by the students than in grade span 6-8. More results determined misalignment in grading. In reading, of students with a C average, 56% were non-proficient on the end-of-grade assessment. In mathematics, of students with a C average, 30% were non-proficient, and of students with a D average, 56% were proficient on the end-of-grade assessment. In both reading and mathematics in grade span 3-5 the teacher-assigned grades in the A-B-C group showed a higher percentage in the proficient category at more levels than in grade span 6-8. Recognizing misalignment in teacher prediction and student achievement provides the foundation for an educational discussion regarding effective teaching practices and the ability of teachers to provide immediate intervention and support.