Mid-Summer Dry Spell and Agriculture in Jamaica : Implications for farming practices, techniques and culture

Abstract

At the beginning of the 21st century, Jamaica stands in a precarious situation which could have serious implications for the island's future. This stress may not have derived from a decrease in precipitation due to climate change, as well as a lack of interest in farming from smallholder farmers, which has become increasingly unsustainable. Younger Jamaicans have rejected farming as a career and instead opted for quick cash or migration out of the country in the hope of making their wealth elsewhere in the world. Thus, crop yields are at risk due to a smaller agricultural workforce. With decreasing labor rates and the current international economic crisis, the need for a high agricultural efficiency is greater than ever. Annual yields are also affected climatologically by a mid-summer atmospheric phenomenon called the Mid-Summer Dry Spell (MSD), resulting in bimodal rainy seasons in April-June and August-November. Understanding how rainfall affects crop production is a primary goal of this research. To accomplish this, a three part analysis will be conducted utilizing correlations between rainfall and crop yield, mapping with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and analysis of how the MSD impacts brightness, greenness and wetness of vegetation.