Integrative Analysis of Policy Changes for a Coastal Watershed: Implications for Agriculture and Ecosystem Health

Abstract

This dissertation explores the integration of hydrological modeling, the effects of sea level rise, and socio-economic factors influencing watershed management in North Carolina, primarily utilizing the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus (SWAT+) with four independent publication chapters. The first chapter assesses the effectiveness of various satellite precipitation products and autocalibration techniques on river flow prediction, highlighting the superior performance of the Global Precipitation Measurement Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals (GPM IMERG) dataset when combined with the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) technique. The second study investigates the effects of sea level rise on nitrate dynamics within the Tar-Pamlico coastal watershed, with adjustments made to SWAT+ parameters to simulate changes in nitrogen processes and their impacts on ecosystem health. This reveals increased nitrate loads under sea level rise scenarios. The third chapter merges econometric and engineering frameworks to evaluate the efficacy of agricultural best management practices (BMPs) as influenced by farmers' behavioral responses. It reveals that despite potential incentives, significant reductions in nitrate loading are not achieved, underscoring the limitations of current models and the importance of comprehensive socio-hydrological frameworks. Collectively, this dissertation enhances our understanding of hydrological processes and their interactions with environmental changes and human factors, offering crucial insights for effective watershed management and policy development.