UNDERSTANDING THE GRAY ZONE IN THE MARITIME DOMAIN: A CASE STUDY OF RUSSIA AND NATO IN THE BALTIC SEA

Abstract

This thesis investigates the evolving challenges in the maritime gray zone by conducting a case study on Russia's activities in the Baltic Sea and their impact on NATO and adjacent nations. It argues that Russia has adopted gray zone tactics in the maritime domain against NATO in the Baltic Sea region, and NATO is currently not postured to adequately deter these measures. It analyzes Russia’s clandestine tactics, including the covert transportation of ballistic missiles, deployment of undersea research vessels for malicious purposes, and disruption of maritime traffic using unconventional means in a concerted effort to coerce NATO without breaching the threshold of armed conflict. The study emphasizes the constraints faced by actors in effectively countering these actions, such as legal limitations on maritime operations and barriers to information sharing and cooperation among allied states. The research highlights the pressing need for enhanced coordination, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance strategies to address the escalating gray zone threats in the maritime domain.